The Promises
Across his 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns, Trump repeatedly promised to avoid new foreign wars, especially in the Middle East. He also promised to end “forever wars” begun by previous administrations. He pledged to reduce U.S. involvement in conflicts where allies “don’t appreciate what we are doing” or don’t “reimburse” the U.S. for security commitments. And lastly, he promised to pursue an “America First” foreign policy focused on domestic priorities rather than global policing. This message was central to his political identity.
Trump’s “no more endless wars/America First” promises aren’t new in spirit—but they collide with a long post‑1945 habit of deep global engagement. George Washington warned against “permanent alliances” and Jefferson favored staying out of European wars—what was later called isolationism or non‑interventionism. Trump’s position sits squarely in that older tradition of suspicion toward foreign commitments and wars that don’t clearly defend the homeland. In terms of rhetoric, Trump is tapping a very old American belief. Don’t get dragged into other people’s fights.
Historically, from 1945 on, a dominant pattern emerges. The US builds NATO, stations troops abroad, fights in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and intervenes repeatedly in Latin America and the Middle East—often as “leader of the free world” or to contain communism/terrorism. The policy becomes active interventionism plus alliances, not Washington‑style distance. Measured against that 75‑year pattern, Trump’s promises were counter‑cultural. He questioned alliances, criticized past wars, and framed global leadership as a bad deal for Americans.
During his first term, Trump emphasized that he had not started any new wars, and he used this as a major selling point in the 2024 campaign. His running mate, JD Vance, framed Trump as the rare modern president who resisted pressure to initiate new conflicts. He also promised to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan, and to avoid deploying U.S. forces unless the U.S. was directly threatened. His promise was to shift responsibility to regional actors saying, “Time for others to finally fight.”
Trump frequently criticized the Iraq War, calling it a “big, fat mistake.” He also criticized the U.S. role as “policeman of the Middle East,” and criticized the presidents who “threw America into unwise wars and failed to win them.” He framed Middle Eastern conflicts as costly, unproductive, and driven by the establishment.
Still, while promising to avoid new wars, Trump consistently said that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. He also believed that the U.S. must confront Iran’s regional influence and proxy forces. This was the one area where his anti‑intervention rhetoric included a clear exception.
The Actions
Despite his promises to avoid new foreign wars and to keep America First, President Trump used a drone strike to kill General Soleimani of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Quds Force. He bombed nuclear processing sites in Iran. He has carried out a military strike in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro. The attack followed 42 attacks targeting boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean. Then there was the public consideration of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. And over a week ago he started a major war in Iran, launched without congressional authorization. These actions contrast sharply with his earlier pledges to avoid foreign entanglements. On March 10th he also reiterated the importance of Greenland and Panama to America’s economic security and stated that military action to acquire these countries was NOT off the table.
Trump now argues that Iran posed a direct and imminent threat to the U.S. He believed that the U.S. needed to degrade Iran’s missiles, navy, nuclear capacity, and proxy networks. He stated that the operation could last far longer than initially projected. He recently said he does not subscribe to the “no boots on the ground” promises of past presidents. This marks a major rhetorical shift from ending wars to justifying new ones as necessary for national security. Most presidents, even when cautious about war, treat alliances as strategic assets. Trump treats them as suspect unless they show immediate, measurable benefit.
The Financial Costs
The Iran war is already costing U.S. taxpayers billions—roughly $3.7 billion in the first 100 hours and more than $5 billion in the first week— and as of this writing a reported $11 billion total with the end still not in sight. Daily operating costs were estimated at $891.4 million during the opening phase. That includes $18 million per day just to keep two carrier strike groups on station—before firing a single weapon. Munition replacement for Tomahawks, JASSM-ER, bunker busters, etc. costs $3.1 billion. Additional costs are associated with replacement of lost units or their repair. The sad thing is that those dollars could fund major domestic priorities if redirected under an “America First” framework.
What Those Dollars Could Support in an America First Strategy
Here’s what $5 billion (the first week of war) could fund domestically.
- It could fund 2–3 major semiconductor fabrication incentives (CHIPS‑style grants). It could be used to rebuild critical supply chains for pharmaceuticals, rare‑earth processing, and defense components. Or there would be dollars to modernize U.S. steel and heavy‑industry plants to reduce reliance on China.
- It could have been used to repair or replace 2,000+ rural bridges nationwide, or to upgrade freight rail and river ports critical to Midwest agriculture. There would have been dollars to modernize water systems in small towns like those across western Illinois.
- This money would have fully funded VA staffing shortages for mental health and primary care. It could allow for expanded housing vouchers for homeless veterans (tens of thousands served).
- The money could support universal school lunch for millions of children for an entire year. It could fund 40,000–50,000 new childcare slots in working‑class communities. It might be possible to rebuild aging public schools in rural districts.
The America First argument is simple. Every billion dollars spent on a foreign war is a billion not spent on domestic security, industry, and community stability. And that’s before considering the possibility of months of continued operations, which could push total costs into the tens of billions.
Hidden Costs to Non‑Belligerent Countries in the Iran War
Even nations far from the battlefield are paying a price. These costs emerge through energy markets, supply chains, financial volatility, and geopolitical realignments. Even countries with no stake in the conflict face higher fuel, electricity, and manufacturing costs. Twenty to 25% of global seaborne oil and one‑fifth of liquid national gas (LNG) move through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions in this route immediately raise global prices. Crude jumped from $70 to over $110 within days of the strikes. Gasoline costs have increased worldwide, resulting in higher transportation and food prices, increased fertilizer costs (due to disrupted ammonia/nitrogen exports), and slower economic growth in energy‑importing nations (Europe, India, Japan)
The Middle East supplies more than oil. Qatar produces40% of the world’s helium, essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Nitrogen and ammonia exports (vital for fertilizers) face delays. Even countries not involved militarily, experience stock market declines (e.g., the Dow fell 400+ points after the strikes), tighter global financial conditions, and capital flight from emerging markets into “safe havens.” Airspace closures across the Gulf grounded thousands of flights. These closures result in higher air cargo costs for global supply chains, and tourism declines for countries dependent on Middle Eastern travelers. At least fourteen freight ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the War. Shipping times have increased, freight rates have risen, and insurance premiums have spiked. Countries not involved in the war still face pressure to take sides. This has strained relations with major powers (e.g., EU, China), increased defense spending to hedge against regional instability, and resulted in domestic political polarization over foreign policy alignment
Iran and its proxies have retaliated. There have been alleged Increases in cyberattacks on global banks, infrastructure, and government systems. There is a heightened terrorism alert, resulting in more resources diverted to intelligence and counterterrorism. Terrorist attacks at Old Dominion, a Michigan synagogue, and the theft of four drones may just be the beginning.
Even countries with no troops, no bases, and no direct involvement in the Iran war are paying a price—through higher energy costs, disrupted supply chains, financial instability, and geopolitical pressure. These hidden costs accumulate quietly, but can reshape national budgets, inflation rates, and political landscapes worldwide.
Conclusion
Considering the above discussion, is the cost associated with the Iran War worth the intended result, whatever that goal may be? What about America First? Shouldn’t the money spent on the Iran War be used to support the America First initiative?
Thoughts from the Middle by Robert J. Fischer 