How healthy is the Trump economy? According to President Trump, the economy is healthy, the best in recent years. But given the media reports over the past several months, I find his claim hard to believe.
I am not an economist. My most difficult courses in college were my two economic classes. However, I have recently spent days evaluating what is considered a neutral analysis on the American economy. Economic evaluations by Purdue University, the Federal Reserve, Deloitte, and Ernst and Young Parthenon report that in 2025, the U.S. economy experienced slower growth, increased inflation, and potential challenges in consumer spending as compared to 2024. In 2025, the expected economic growth rate of around 1.5% is less than it was in 2024 (2.8%). This reduced growth rate is likely due to President Trump’s high tariffs and overall reduced consumer spending (although the recent pre-Christmas shopping has set records).
The Simple Data
The unemployment rate rose slightly in 2025, reaching 4.8%, as compared to 4% in 2024. The risks surrounding the labor market have sharply increased. The increase is linked to the cooling labor market and higher costs due to tariffs. At the same time, business investment has decreased due to economic uncertainty and higher costs. This is partially due to the increased tariffs.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer Inflation in 2024 was historically low at 2.9%. However, the 2025 annual rate is estimated to be 4.1%. While the Federal Reserve has been cautious in lowering its prime lending rate, a further cut in December could bring the target range for inflation to +3.5% – +3.75% by year-end.
These trends indicate that American businesses and citizens are having a difficult time navigating the changing federal economic policies. In addition, the uncertainty in U.S. economic policies has had an international impact. European markets are more competitive. EY Parthenon forecasts that the dollar will continue to depreciate against the Euro. The same is projected for the dollar against the yen.
How Does America Compare with Other Major World Economies?
CHINA
In 2024, China’s economic growth stood at 5.3%, but slowed to 4.8% by the end of the third quarter of 2025. The annual growth is projected to be 5%. The strengthening of private consumption is a key priority for the Chinese authorities. Despite US tariffs, manufacturing activity has been driven by export growth in other trade partnerships. However, export growth is expected to lose momentum in the coming months as the export sector suffers from the rise in protectionism and the weakening of global demand.
EUROZONE
The planned increase in military spending in Europe, and significant budgetary support in Germany, have provided a boost to the Eurozone in 2025. This trend will likely continue into 2026 if support for Ukraine remains strong. However, economic growth will be limited in the short term by trade tensions between the United States and China. Inflation is expected to remain stable around the 2% target.
FRANCE
France has a low GDP rate of 0.5%. The inflation rate continues to decline. The low GDP may be the result of significant political uncertainty and its impact on household confidence. But German economic growth recovery should push the French rate up to 1.2%.
UNITED KINGDOM
Economic activity in the United Kingdom strengthened slightly in 2025, rising to 1.3%. According to EY Parthenon, it will continue to slow to 1.0% in 2026. However, increased defense spending in the United Kingdom and Europe may support an increased GDP. Downside risks have been mitigated by the trade agreements with the United States. In 2025, inflation remained well above 2%, supported by wage growth and persistent supply-side pressures. The Bank of England cut its key interest rates again in November which may further reduce inflation.
JAPAN
Japanese growth has been increasing throughout most of 2025. However, due to the US trade policy, the negative consequences for export businesses have resulted in muting this growth. Household consumption is facing inflation. The Bank of Japan has started a cautious monetary tightening cycle, bringing the key rate to +0.5%. In December, the rate was raised again to deal with persistent inflationary pressures.
Final Observations
In summary, the United States economic policies under President Trump have eroded the gains achieved during previous years. For example, President Biden had inherited a troubled economy due to the COVID outbreak and the Trump administration’s “American Economic Revival” plans. (See Trump’s 2016 speech in Time, September 15, 2016.)
When President Joe Biden left the White House economics reported a strong economy, historic gains in the job market, a foundation for future manufacturing growth, and having brought down decades-highinflation without triggering a recession. Those feats, economists say, are even more impressive considering the nation was deep in the throes of a deadly, economy-scarring pandemic
Post Trump administration analysis of his American Economic Revival plan found that the plan did not work. Economist Justin Wolfers wrote in February 2019: “I’ve reviewed surveys of about 50 leading economists – liberals and conservatives – run by the University of Chicago. What is startling is that the economists are nearly unanimous in concluding that Mr. Trump’s policies are destructive.”
In my opinion, the second term Trump policies are no better than those of his first term. President Trump has placed the country in an economic position that is less than favorable in the world economy, and more importantly, domestically. Inflation is still high. The unemployment rate is static. Trump tariffs have increased prices domestically and alienated many nations. In early 2025, the Yale Budget Lab estimated that consumer prices would rise by 1.4% to 5.1%, with an average cost per household of $1,900 to $7,600. In a Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted Nov. 21-24, 49% of respondents said Trump’s actions, since taking office for his second term in January, have raised prices instead of cutting them. Only 24% said he’s lowered costs.