The American Dream?
By Robert Fischer
What is the American Dream?
Growing up in the 1950s, I learned that the American Dream was exemplified by television shows like: Leave It to Beaver, The Brady Bunch, Father Knows Best, and My Three Sons. These shows depicted White “all American” families from middle, working class backgrounds. Many in my generation were fortunate to have lived the dream. However, to others the dream was just that- a dream. To the young Black person, it was a dream that only a very few could realize. To American Indian youth, it was an almost impossible dream. To migrant field hands from Mexico, it would not likely be realized at all.
So how can we call it an American Dream? In reality, it is a White middle and upper class desire to continue our own prosperity. While in this 21st Century, many Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities have achieved financial and social success, many others have not. In addition, many White families are also struggling to maintain a decent standard of living.
The dynamic that has been created by those living the “dream” is a fear that those “others” are threatening our very way of living. Many middle class Americans fear the growing success of those who are not like us, but are achieving success. We fear minority groups that include those already mentioned, as well as a growing number of Middle Eastern immigrants. It is no wonder that hate crimes seem to be on the rise. It is no wonder that home grown extremist groups have become more vocal.
Should We Be Worried?
First, let us look at the demographic facts. Since the projected need to maintain a base population is a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman, the United States should be losing population with an overall birth rate of 1.73 births per woman. (The rate is consistent, plus or minus .3%, across all races.) (CDC, “Births, Final Data for 2014)
However, the population continues to grow. This growth can only be attributed to immigration. Immigration has caused the foreign born population to double from 20 million in 1990 to over 45 million in 2015. (Pew Research Center 2015) Seventy five percent of immigrants are either citizens, or temporary or permanent lawful residents. However, 25% are illegal. Most immigrants, both legal and illegal, come from Mexico, China, India, Philippines and El Salvador. Based on the 2010 Census, Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for over 50% of foreign born legal immigrants. Until recently the United States led the world in refugee resettlement, admitting more refugees than all other countries combined. (Pew Research Center 2019)
Population growth is the greatest among minorities as a whole, and 50% of children younger than 18 are ethnic minorities. (PBS News Hour, January 2020) Whites continue to be the majority population at 73%. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017) However, by 2045 it is estimated that the percentage will fall to just below 50%. (Brookings Institute, 2018) (This estimate may actually be lower since many mixed race persons self-identify as White.) (Edsell, 4/7/2021)
A good indicator of future demographics is K-12 student enrollments. The 2045 estimate is supported by The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). The racial mix in schools (K-12) is a great predictor of the future. NCES projects that by 2029, White students will make up only 43.8 percent of public school enrollment. (Edsell,”The Fear That is Shaping American Politics,” The New York Times, 4/7/2021) However, it is important to note that for the past few decades, White America has made up 62% of the total population of K-12 students followed by Hispanics (18%), and Blacks (13%).
Should we be worried? While it is projected that by 2034, the White population of the United States will fall below 50%, White Americans will still be the largest single ethnic group (Edsell). However, White Americans will share this country with a diverse group of people. Historically, if you consider the fact that the majority of the first Americans were primarily British, who had to share the land with Native Americans, French, Spanish, Dutch and others, little has changed other than the categorizations. The fact is that the founding fathers managed to establish a nation which has prospered with a diverse population.
The America of the 21st Century, while viewed by many as no longer the world leader (as presented by some of our own leaders and media), is still a “powerhouse” nation. This power is exemplified by our military status, (spending more on the military than all other nations combined) and economic power (even though, currently being challenged by China). This power is real, and it has been accomplished with a growing racially diverse population. There is no reason to assume that our dominance and competitiveness will diminish as the dynamics of our population shift!
Why Are So Many White Americans Worried?
As this piece is being written, The New York Times published an article, “Fears of White People Losing Out Permeate Capitol Rioters’ Towns, Study Finds.” The author, Alan Feuer, writes about research conducted by Robert Pape, the director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. After reviewing statistics regarding the Capitol Insurgents, Pape found that most participants were fearful of minority rights and immigrants. This fear has been called the Great Replacement theory. The theory suggests that immigrants and minorities are attempting to take over the country. Pape notes that a related march in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, had a large contingency that chanted, “Jews will not replace us!”
Pape notes that such fears are not new. Extremists have responded to immigration and civil rights movements throughout our nation’s history. The common thread is that middle class and upper middle class Whites are worried about changes in social norms that threaten their future. While many in the media have focused on extremist groups such as the Oath Keepers or Proud Boys, the FBI reports that only 10% of the January 6, 2021, demonstrators were involved with these two groups. Pape argues that the other 90% were a growing group of “ordinary “people who fear the changes that they see. He notes similarities to the Know Nothing Party (circa 1860) that grew out of a fear that Irish Catholics immigrants were changing the predominately Protestant social structure of America. A similar gathering of like-minded individuals, the Klu Klux Klan, occurred following World War I, due to the large influx of Italians and the great migration of Blacks from the south to northern cities.
The Reality
As noted, this nation was founded by a group of people from diverse backgrounds in states with very diverse national backgrounds. Over the decades that followed, other diverse groups came to America or were brought here by Americans with business interests. Native Americans, viewed as a threat to expansion, were minimized. Chinese labors arrived to build our railroads. Blacks were brought here to labor as slaves in southern cotton fields or slave labor in northern factories. The Irish came to find a better life following the Irish potato famine. The Italians arrived looking for the American dream, as did the Germans and other ethnic groups. In most cases these newcomers were viewed with skepticism. However, the nation continued to prosper.
Today’s immigrants are no different than their predecessors. They come to find the American Dream. Other minorities who are already Americans seek that same dream. A look toward the future indicates that by 2065, the nation’s demographics are projected to be composed as follows:
White 46%
Hispanic 24%
Asian 14%
Black 13% American’s should not fear the Black population who seek equal treatment. Likewise, Hispanics and Asians, who have achieved some degree of success in many parts of the country, desire the same. Minorities are not going to take over the country. America will continue to prosper!
Thoughts from the Middle by Robert J. Fischer 